MitchMusings

The eternal teenager

2009-01-06T20:25:00.000-08:00

He's an icon of American television. Heck, he's probably be on the audiovisual medium since RCA first produced a TV. And I'm convinced nothing will stop Dick Clark except for the ever-approaching moment of death. Nothing else should.

Most people who are somewhat plugged into American pop culture know the tale. It was that stroke that was supposed to be the end of Dick Clark on TV. He'd been on the air forever, hosting his New Year's Eve special for decades as the icing on his celebrated career, seeming like someone who would have to be forced out on some executive's terms. Then the stroke came, and that was the KO. He was down for the count, and he wasn't getting up before it ended.

This year was the first time I had watched part of his special in a long time, and my reaction at the first instant I heard him was "Oh how sad." The stroke clearly affected his speech motor skills, and the sound was one that at first made you believe they were just trotting him out there because it was still called "Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve". Time to hang it up, Dick, I thought.

But they came back to him every now and again, and as the night went on, I started to realize that his physical abilities were about the only thing he lost. Mentally, the man was still there, still as lively as the man known as the eternal teenager. He could still read his cues, hold a conversation with his outdoor replacement, and live life mostly on his terms.

I guess only Death can take him away to his American Bandstand in the sky. Just as it should be.

A voice emerges

2008-12-09T18:51:00.000-08:00

Being a little brother is not something I can say I understand well. I wasn't one. I don't know anything about having to deal with an older brother's shadow, the nuances of not being the first child. But the general theme of a little brother's childhood quest I can summarize: try finding your own voice.

The middle brother started out almost as a clone. Looked like me, talked like me, did many of the same things I did. In the process, he was clearly "Matt's brother", and while he didn't mind that, he didn't want that to define him either. Then, one Christmas, he got a guitar, and the artist began to emerge, a very distinct way of distancing himself from his analytical math and sport loving older brother. He's now a part-time sports writer and public radio voice.

The younger brother didn't look like us, but probably had the least sense of direction for where he was going. So, after his two older brothers started down different paths, he began to take some from each of us. In a way, it made him unique. In other, he still had to find his own voice.

Flash forward to Sunday night. The younger brother is now an aspiring vocal instructor, and has been singing non stop for the past week. He is performing in a concert, which this currently typing brother was able to attend. The last number arrives, "Silent Night". The choir fans out around the nave. And I turn back to spot where he is. That's when I realize the kid has his own voice.

Finally.

Friday Link-O-Rama

2008-11-21T13:15:00.000-08:00

I feel like doing one of these posts, so here goes:

I collected baseball cards growing up and gained my love for number from them. The genius of Joe Posnanski goes through an observational history of stats on baseball cards, and if you've ever collected (even if you were only a 1990s card boom collector), you'll enjoy it.
From my little corner of Huskerland, a few thoughts on fear and how it can govern life at times.
The election might be over in most corners of the country, but Nate Silver continues to show his intellectual mettle.

And one personal thought of the day:

Politics has seemingly devolved into being like college sports, where you root for your team vehemently and disparage your rivals while trying to purport your team's superiority. So what happened to good, open discussions about ideas in the forum where it matters the most?

A tale of two analysts

2008-11-16T13:23:00.000-08:00

The title of my latest post over at Seamheads

Veteran's Day

2008-11-11T09:39:00.000-08:00

If you're at least a third-generation American, you almost certainly have a relative who served or is serving in the United States Armed Forces.

Today is their day. Thank them for their service.

Post election day thoughts

2008-11-05T20:31:00.000-08:00

1) The smarter campaign won. This is obvious, but it does make me wonder what happens if John McCain does more talking about issues rather than trying to tear down Obama's image. For me, it was the constant disparaging of Obama, especially during the debates, that didn't allow the Maverick image to shine. Of course, imitating Obama's campaign didn't make him seem better either.

2) Now, I have as much hope as anyone that Obama can make good things happen in government. But I'll know the Daley Machine has extended its reign to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. if Patrick Fitzgerald is disposed of as the U.S. District Attorney in Chicago while Obama is in office. Of course, this could also lead to the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago, which many are now predicting in Chicago.

3) Affirmative action goes down in Nebraska. Gay unions go down in California. Yet Colorado can't figure out when a person's life begins. Here's a hint: 80% were wrong.

4) Lots of promises means they will either be fulfilled or 1994 will repeat itself in 2010. Mr. President-elect, you've been warned.

And lastly, the word of the day is:

Obamanation

For you Democrats out there, this is a synonym of domination. For the Republicans in the crowd, just think of what other word it sounds like if you say it really fast. It'll help you survive for at least the next 2 years.

Cole Hamels = John Cleese?

2008-10-30T17:59:00.000-07:00

You decide.

(H/T to the wonderful wife)

Back in business

2008-10-30T17:58:00.000-07:00

Man, this whole not posting thing does not work well, now does it? Ok, reset button time (for the fifth time)...

The Olympic Gymnastics Rant

2008-08-24T06:37:00.000-07:00

Gymnastics is one of those Olympic sports that I literally only pay attention to during this quadrennial celebration of sport, and I probably wouldn't mind if NBC didn't broadcast so much of it in future games. That being said, the brouhaha over He Kaxin and her fellow Chinese gymnasts' ages lead me to ask the IOC and FIG this:

WHY ARE YOU ASKING THE CHINESE!?!?

Let's backtrack a bit. First, before the Olympics, FIG (the international gymnastics governing body) examined the Chinese-issued competition passports of the Chinese gymnastics team, which stated all of their team's athletes were 16, and thus eligible, even amid the swirl of suspicion that those ages may not be true; a Danny Almonte case in reverse.
A few days ago, new media investigative reports brought these age issues back into question. Now, put yourself in the FIG Investigator's shoes. In the case that new evidence arises that puts these same issues in doubt again, should you go check the same source for different documents and stop there, or should you examine other legitimate records?
Obviously, if a fraud is being perpetrated, the perpetrators, if they're worth anything, should backtrack to forge what is necessary in case of investigation; in this case, birth certificates. So why stop there? I'm almost certain that gymnastics has a World Junior Championships event for athletes not age-eligible for this highest level of competition. Wouldn't you have records from that stating the ages of the competitors there? Wouldn't a gymnast in line for an eventual spot on a national team have competed there? Again, I have to pose these as questions because, as I said, I don't follow gymnastics outside of the Olympics, nor do I care to.
It seems to me the logic used in this case is to take the accusation, ask the accused to provide their own evidence in refute, and if they produce valid proof clear their name without any cross-examination. It is that lack of an extra validity check that has me questioning these findings, and odds are if news does break that China cheated in this case, you can surely bet that it won't come with the spotlight on.

Lessons from a life

2008-06-13T16:55:00.001-07:00

The top news headline today reads as some variant of this: Tim Russert dead at 58.

A few weeks ago, an obituary ran in a newspaper in IL. A long-time resident of that community had passed, after 100 years of life.

The first was a famous name of a television reporter who I occasionally watched on Sundays. The second is my father's godmother. It would seem comparing the testimonials of Russert's colleagues to the reflections of my own great-aunt would have nothing in common, and yet they remarkably do.

It appears Mr. Russert was a man of great faith who invested himself in people, regardless of their status. Listening to Bob Woodward and David Gregory said just as much, and personally I couldn't help but think he was a good guy after his insightful yet generous appearances on Jim Cramer's Mad Money. And reports have it that his family had just been in audience with Il Papa, which makes this Catholic smile.

My aunt lived her life without the public spotlight, but yet still gave herself in service to all. Her work as a trust officer secured a number of families with a stable financial foundation, many of whom returned her generosity upon their own deaths. She always enjoyed visitors to her house, and treasured that time with them. Her faith (also Catholic) was her foundation, the wellspring from which her generosity flowed.

I write this because as a society, we treat death almost exclusively as the sadness of losing something good and with the idea that the deceased has moved on to a better place. But to someone whose persona demands that things have a purpose, it seems that another question needs to be raised with equal reverence: What did he or she teach us? What good from his or her life should be incorporated into my life that hasn't been already? I'm not sure there's a universal answer to these questions, because these are the types of questions with answers that speak to a personal level.

For this purpose-obsessed mind, the lesson from both of these is clear: Too often do I associate purpose with tangible pursuits, rather than in developing relationships with people. Maybe it's that rugged individualism that is ingrained in American lore, but I find myself looking to help my pursuits almost as much as I should be trying to help others'. Yet my head knows that it is in genuinely helping others that we most help ourselves. As Jesus was quoted: "The first is this: 'Hear, O Israel! The Lord our God is Lord alone! You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, with all your soul, with all your mind, and with all your strength.' The second is this: 'You shall love your neighbor as yourself.' There is no other commandment greater than these." (Mk 12: 29-31; author's emphasis)

That's how Tim Russert lived. That's how my great aunt lived. That how we all need to live.

Seamheads post

2008-06-11T18:21:00.001-07:00

Today's post on Seamheads is an orientation to statistics. Yes, I use baseball examples, but the lessons within are something to understand across all numeric data that you're presented, like polls.

A new feature

2008-06-04T06:34:00.001-07:00

Some smart person related to me by blood made the brilliant suggestion that I post links here to my work at Seamheads. Well, here's my post for this week.

If I remember, expect this every Wednesday. And I'll stop promising to be more regular with posts here when it's obvious that writing in this space is not a high priority.

Day by day with people

2008-05-10T23:19:00.000-07:00

So, I finally am back again. I should use this space more often, and I plan to do so.

The following may or may not be a valid thought, but it goes through my mind often enough that it is worth musing about.

I often find myself caught in a pickle. On the one hand, there are all these societal norms that for one reason or another define what is acceptable and what isn't. On the other, there's the individual personality, which is a unique aspect of each human being. And if there is some line that is between them, I have the hardest time finding it.

Some days it seems as if I get looked at like a raving lunatic who has enough marbles not to be committed to an institution but still makes no sense with what comes out of my mouth or what I do. Maybe that's my personality that just says "To hell with what society says to do, I'm doing it my way." Maybe there's something I don't understand that people are too afraid to tell because someone is just supposed to "get it". Or maybe their personality just doesn't take well to mine. Whatever it is, it confounds my finite mind.

Of course, I'm guilty too. I'm an extrovert, and an introvert can be easily intimidated by what can be a domineering personality. But the only time some people communicate that is to another friend. Same with opinions about someone that may/may not be well founded. And to these I say this: If you don't have the cajones to say something to my face, then it probably is a thought that belongs in the garbage.

Now, I fully understand why many societal norms are in place, particularly ones that enforce (good) mores. And the ones I understand I follow. But why does it seem like you have to approach people in a certain manner? Or, maybe more to my point, why do some people just not seem to be able to accept people for what they are at the core? In my Catholic-raised mind, any other human is a creation in the likeness and image of God.

There's an old phrase "love the sinner, hate the sin" that I think works well here. We try to distance ourselves from those who don't conform to what we deem acceptable. And we rob ourselves of a chance to not only see the good in a person, but to maybe even affect their life in a positive manner.

Perhaps this doesn't make sense, perhaps it does. But it's almost 1 am, so the mind might be a little tired.

The transition

2008-04-13T17:47:00.000-07:00

So yeah, I promised a nice update to the site and more frequent posts, and what do you get? NOTHING. Zilch. And a barren wasteland of posts for the last month, save for a little Easter rejoicing.

But while this transition failed (thus far), others have gone on. Winter has turned to spring back to winter back to spring here in high plains. Case and point was the last 4 days. Thursday: 5 inches of snow. Today: 70 degrees. Go figure. Friendly visitors from the homeland have come and gone. And the single guy in me is still struggling to give way to the married man I'm about to become. Guess that last one is OK for the moment (emphasis on it being for the moment). And I'm up and running with weekly posts at Seamheads.

Now, if only I could get some resolution on grad school.....

Happy Easter

2008-03-23T21:19:00.001-07:00

He is risen! 'Nuff said.

When you know your government has it backwards

2008-03-17T21:24:00.000-07:00

By now, you've read the headlines about this little deal that finished the stunning collapse of one of the most respected investment banks. And if I were you, I'd be sick to my stomach knowing that $236 million of my taxpayer dollars just helped keep the wealthy rich while companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac languish to a point that threatens the average person. And my gut truly is feeling sick as I type because of this.

You can easily see those who had money invested with Bear Sterns and JP Morgan as the winners here, while the shareholders of BSC get the major shaft. Of course, whoever bought 55,000 put options at $30 is looking like a genius at this point, provided he isn't the next coming of Jeff Skilling. And yet the $2 per share price just seems like rich have gotten richer.

In this writer's opinion, this fiasco is another example of Bernanke's ineptitude as Fed Chairman, and the failed economic policies of the current White House administration. They somehow think that bailing out an investment bank is the solution when the power of the middle class is declining, the plummeting value of the dollar is pushing imported commodities higher, most notably crude oil, and people in this country keep thinking that to live beyond one's means is a human right rather than a stupid financial decision, everyone must own a home even if it is impractical for one's vocation/profession, and that the government will try to save the average American from debt by putting the country further into it. Have we no sense of logic anymore?

The premise of the "Dark Angel" television series was an EMP turning the US into a 3rd world country overnight (and to expose a young actress by the name of Jessica Alba). Perhaps it won't take such an action from science fiction, but is already occurring because of the hands of Ben, Hank, and George W.

A new place to muse

2008-03-07T19:04:00.000-08:00

So I've agreed to write for another blog, this one focused on that wonderful sport of baseball. The blog is Seamheads.com, which you can also get to through Baseball Daily Digest, just click on "Seamheads" at the top. While Seamheads has been focused on baseball history, they wanted some more writers to address the current state of the game and other interests, and thus where I and many others have come in to help out the two gents who started it. Naturally, my posts for them will have a statistical slant, ranging from Op-ed to hardcore research. You can read my first post, reflecting on the possibility that Spring Training statistics indicate something about professional ballplayers.

For those of you who have found my blog from Seamheads, welcome. My personal blog tends to be more broad based than the baseball focus of Seamheads, as my interests are wide and varied, though tend to have a common theme of something competitive in nature with the exception of my faith themed comments. I hope you enjoy reading one or the other, and there may be a few extra nuggets I post here that I am unable to on Seamheads (most likely files and what not).

Maybe I should make some changes around here....

2008-02-28T22:06:00.001-08:00

I recently received a link to a friend's blog, and realized he had linked to about 12 other people who blogged on his sidebar (yours truly included). It got me thinking how unfinished this blog look is, and with a possible opportunity to write for a larger, more established audience on another blog, I may want to clean this up. So, if it's crappy weather or I'm just in need of something to do to keep me away from doing something stupid. look for little tweaks here and there.

Of course, since it's also supposed to be 68 degrees here on Saturday, it may not happen for a little while.

P.S. Did I mention baseball has started? Ok, because it has. So if the top sports story in your local paper isn't about spring training, last night's basketball game, or last night's hockey game, call your paper and complain. This is null and void in markets where a certain brutish sport is the only game in town (I'm looking at you, Jacksonville!)

Catch up day

2008-02-16T12:58:00.000-08:00

In the midst of being concerned for those I know who attend Northern Illinois University over the past couple days, I put off posting some of these things until today. Please pray for that campus.

Back in the early 1990's, a young assistant coach in the Big 10 blew the whistle of recruiting violations involving Dion Thomas and the Fighting Illini basketball team. That coach went on to be one of the more popular coaches today. He is Bruce Pearl. Illini fans still don't like him, but they like him more than the Cheater In Loosierville. Well, I think my fellow Illini will have the last laugh after all, with the news involving Mr. Cheater a.k.a. Kelvin Sampson. Here's thinking Eric Gordon is the blacked out name in this smackdown from the NCAA.
The sweetest words in February aren't "Happy Valentine's Day!" or "Happy Birthday Matt!" No, my friends, they are simply these: PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT! The White Sox will finish at least 3rd, and the Rockies won't need an improbable run to get to the postseason. However, Mr. Dempster makes me laugh. Keep dreaming, Cubdom!

The audacity of it!

2008-02-12T19:11:00.000-08:00

Ok, so the Obamanator and the Straight Talk Express made clean sweeps tonight in the 3 primaries held out east. So, being the news and political junkie that I am at times, I've spent most of the last hour consuming the candidates speeches on TV (along with a pepperoni pizza). And, after hearing a few initial words from the Mac Attack, stumping like someone who is campaigning for November rather than March, I had one thought:

"Hope? He's trying to run with someone else's campaign theme!"

Ladies and gentlemen, he may not get the nomination, but Barack Obama is leading the change in the tone of political campaigning. If this can correlate to his promises for change in Washington, look out, World.

I just pray that the corruption of the R.M. Daley Machine that now dominates the state he represents and the party which he is a part of in that state doesn't prove him to be in bed with those he purports himself to be a part from and destroy his campaign.

Hint to all the athletes in the world

2008-02-09T11:15:00.000-08:00

I meant to highlight this the day I read it, but Darren Rovell's blog on CNBC has ran excerps of interviews he did with Nike execs for their hour special on the company. I found this comparison between MJ and LeBron by Nike's Charlie Denson very interesting. Have a look. It's the last Q&A.

Holy crap!

2008-02-03T19:29:00.000-08:00

Why weren't the Packers in the Super Bowl? That's been the dominant thought in my head for 2 weeks with regards to anything about American professional football (not to be confused with the real football). But, being the sports maniac that I am, I went to a party and watched the game, expecting a massive boredom fest while the Patriots ran a coronation lap (I'm comment #1, and thanks to Joe for his excellent blog). Instead, I watched what might just be Patriots equivalent of the New York Yankees in the 2001 World Series. Let me draw the comparisons:

Both championships looked like there was a chance it could be competitive, but you never thought beforehand that the underdog would actually pull it off. Granted, the 2001 Yanks weren't the 1998 team, but in the wake of terror, there was a sentiment that they were destined to win and lift a city's broken spirit. The Patriots were merely staring down a perfect season.
The contest for the championship is surprisingly closer than expected after it is more than half completed. Did you expect the Super Bowl to be 7-3 at half? After the third quarter? Didn't think so. Did you expect the D-Backs to be able to win Game 6 down 3-2 after 2 blown saves by Byung Hyun Kim? Didn't think so.
At a point late in the contest, there was a sense of it's over, and the dynasty will remain on top, even though there was ample time for it to change. See #2 for 2001 WS. Tom Brady throws a go ahead TD to Randy Moss? Game over, because you know the Pats D will hold. It's just gotta happen, right?
Some amazing sequence of events right at the end enables the upset. 9th Inning, Game 7, Yanks up 2-1. Mo Rivera on the mound. Game over, right? WRONG! Tell me you've seen a wilder finish to a Series and I'll ask if you were alive for any of these games (Tip of the Hat to Hardball Times). Back to tonight: Wasn't Eli down on that one scrum? And yet somehow he gets away and completes a 45 yard pass to put the Giants within a desperate fade route of a miracle if needed. Then Plaxico Burress finally gets open like he did against the Pa.... on second thought, we won't relive that, lest I damage my monitor with the mouse hurled through it.

Now that is over and the Giants have allowed the '72 Dolphins to enjoy their champagne, I can't help but think one thing.

It should have been the Packers. But they blew it.

It's about time!

2008-02-02T15:29:00.001-08:00

While my football interest usually revolves around 2 teams, there is one issue that has been in my craw since last year's Super Bowl. The Pro Football Hall of Fame usually gets a shrug off when it announces its inductees right around the Super Bowl, but for years the selection committee omitted a very gifted receiver by the name of Art Monk. Now, he wasn't the best receiver of his era, but that's because he played at the same time some guy named Jerry Rice played, and if I remember correctly, #80 for the Niners was pretty darn good. But, he did hold the receptions record prior to Rice, and was the key receiver for 2 Redskin Super Bowl teams.

In the mid-90's, there was another receiver who drew a lot of comparisons to Monk in his style of play. But, he was more flamboyant, annoying, and a Dallas Cowboy. He happens to work for the East Coast Leader in Sports, the Eastern Sports Programming Network, and was elected last year to the aforementioned shrine in Canton, OH. Yet, I never believed Mr. Irvin should have been there ahead of Mr. Monk. Yes, Mr. Irvin had more physical tools to help him out, particularly his size. But, in my opinion, Mr. Monk was the better receiver and should have been inducted ahead of Mr. Irvin.

So a Colbert-esque "Tip of the Hat" to Art Monk today, as he is now immortalized with his own bust in that Ohio museum.

The black hole

2008-01-30T18:20:00.000-08:00

I-L-L!

The start of a cheer filled with hope and joy, and an inspiring call to any athletic team fielded by the greatest university known to man (NOTE: heavy alum bias). However, tonight is yet another reminder of how futile the once-renowned basketball program has become.

Sometime during my undergraduate, A Selfish man decided we weren't good enough, and left for the Land of Least Resistance (especially true in March). My beloved alma mater decided to hire a less than heralded coach from So IL, Bruce Weber. While we weren't sure he'd produce, his first 2 years were probably the greatest start for any coach in Illini history, with back to back outright Big 10 titles and a National Runner-Up that would've been a title if the refs could've called a damn foul on this punk as easily as I could've from the 3rd row of the upper deck at the Edward Jones Dome that night. That's him being a crybaby in that last link.

Anyway, side rants aside, Bruuuuuuuuuuce (the only proper way to say his name in praise) had won over the tough hearts of the Illini with these feats. But how the hearts of the I-Fund are fickle. His current edition is only avoiding the Big 10 cellar because Northwestern is its usual unimpressive self. And watching this team makes me want to scream the following:

"It's the motion offense, not the standstill!" - a reference to the offensive system Coach Weber prefers, but his players can't seem to run. Unfortunately, this penchant for lead shoes leads to....
"Let them run, Bruce!" - a remark usually made because the Illini, after a well paced first half where they lead by 10, will slow it up so darn much that the other team can come back and beat the Illini bloody. This is directly a product of the coaching.
"Pass the ball Shawn!" - our senior center is nicknamed "The Black Hole" for a reason. The basketball goes into him, and it never seems to be passed away by him. He is not a fit for the offense.
"Man, we suck!"

So who's to blame for this debacle? It's hard to say. Many will point straight at Coach, and while he has proven he isn't the best with X's and O's, I still think some benefit of the doubt belongs in his court after the CF Delilah at Loosierville (ask me what that means sometime if you don't mind offensive language) cheated and stole our top recruit for this year while violating another 50 NCAA rules. The Black Hole? He was recruited by the Selfish man, and that style is more suited to Mr. Pruitt's game than the current system. Still, he could learn to pass the ball more than once a game. Something else? I can't point to any one thing. Simply put, it's a mess.

Enough said. Back to watching another ugly loss to MSU.

A nephew and his uncle Screwtape

2008-01-27T19:47:00.000-08:00

One of the current books in my reading queue is The Screwtape Letters by C.S. Lewis. And while I'm only 12 chapters in, the dominant theme has to be the slight misdirections perpetuated by Wormwood, his "affectionate" uncle Screwtape, and their other demon friends. Needless to say, it is a humbling reminder of how weak the human will can truly be. We can have a plan to do things and never get them done because we decide that '5 more minutes' is more important than throwing a pair of socks in the laundry or calling a friend. And yet avoiding these types of situations and misdirections can be extremely difficult at times, even when you have a drill sergeant standing over you.

Guess that's why "Carpe Diem" is such a valuable motto for many who live by it much closer than I.

Sick day thoughts

2008-01-23T16:59:00.000-08:00

A few backlogged thoughts as I battle cold and fever.....

Monday night's debut of "Better Know a Governor" on the Colbert Report (t's pronounced) was another wonderful addition to his "Better Know a.... " series, as his conversation with the governor of South Carolina was humorous as only Stephen Colbert can do. However, one of his jokes sort of poked at a media ire of mine: how the Catholic Church, in particular the Pope, is treated by the media. Now, Colbert's little poke about the biggest difference between Catholicism and Protestantism (crucifix vs. cross and no Pope) does center on the heart of what most people think. However, it continues to treat the Church as political entity, and thus the media message focus on political hints, not the main message. Watch this April when Pope Benedict XVI comes to the US, and tell me if the media focus is on what he might insinuate about Iraq and other global affairs in his homilies/sermons, or on the 200th anniversary of the Archdiocese of New York. Hint: the latter is the main and official reason for the visit.
I went to my first rodeo on Saturday, seeing as I now live in cowboy country (1 hr from Cheyenne, and 2.5 hrs from Denver will do that to you). In my crazy mind, it was like a minor league baseball game. Yes, that's right, I compared it to baseball. Now, don't get me wrong, the competitors are world class, and in that respect it is more like a major league game at Coors Field. But all the side show stuff, particularly the head rodeo clown, made me think of the things minor league clubs do to draw attendance.
My old home congressional district, the Illinois 14th, is something of a pride spot after J. Dennis Hastert was Speaker of the House. However, since he's retiring, the Republican primary to replace him is brutal. On one side, you have Chris Lauzen, career politician as an Illinois State Senator trying to jump to Washington as another former Illinois State Senator did a couple years ago. On the other, you have a moneybags trying to get any major political office, Jim Oberweis. Now, both come from the same town I was born in, and even graduated from the beautiful academy of which I am glad to be an alum. However, if I were voting Republican back home, this would be another lesser of 2 evils election. Oberweis has some out there views that clash with my world view, but Lauzen is a slick dirt bag as far as I'm concerned. I won't reference any stories I have been told about him, but needless to say I'll let the writer's observed actions of his oldest son (who graduated shortly after me) towards some of his classmates speak in support of those tales. In all honesty, I'd probably vote for Jim Oberweis, if mainly on the grounds that he's a political outsider (relatively speaking). If you want a rundown on how vicious this campaign is, just look here (sign in may be required)

Who are you?..... redux

2008-01-21T16:59:00.001-08:00

So, based on traffic, not many of you may have read my introductory post (nor may you read this one right away) . Alas, I figured it'd be good to fill in some of the things I deliberately left out initially in the interest of security but may not be able to hide. So, I conveniently updated my personal information, which resides in the sidebar. Maybe you'll find something in common.

Can't we all just get along?

2008-01-16T17:04:00.000-08:00

It may already feel like an eternity ago, but just last week Richard "Goose" Gossage was elected to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. As has become the rite of baseball muses every, they build up to the day of the announcement with arguments of who should be in, who shouldn't, and, if they are fortunate enough to be a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, who they voted for and why.

This exchange of words in the written public forums has ascended to a different level in recent years, correlating with the rise in many fan's appreciation of statistical methods used to analyze players in the post Moneyball world. I'll direct you to Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts blog entries to see what I mean, as well my initial inspiration for this entries' topic. I'll pause here so you can read both entries, and then come back with the rest of the topic.

*musical interlude featuring Nancy Faust playing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" on the organ at Comiskey (no sound link, so use your imagination!)*

Ok, so now that you've read that (you did read, right), you may have noticed someone taking his Louisville Slugger of logic and sabermetric evidence to shred a well known writer at the Eastern Sports Programming Network (ESPN for short). This conflict is not a novel one, nor is it isolated. There are tons of words on various respected sites and in respected publications which detail this battle royale. Trust me, I spared you reading a sentence where every word was linked there it's that massive. But the conflict still seems to manifest itself in pieces like Mr. Lederer's and Mr. Olney's. And I, among others who have written well before me, can't understand why.

A little insight on my background: My day job is as a marketing statistician for a specialty retailer of outdoor gear. Besides the fact that I have no shame in plugging my company's website which you will hopefully buy from someday, my job isn't one where I get to look at numbers all day and tell people what my conclusions are and why they are right. It's a conversation between myself and whoever is the beneficiary of the analysis, be it a marketing analyst, product manager, or other person in the company. This provides valuable information that I cannot gather through the methods I use to analyze the numerical data as I am charged to do. Likewise, whoever receives my conclusions will be wise to incorporate them in with what he/she already knows from their job, and then use it to better their strategies.

At this point in time, many Major League organizations have accepted this idea (including some who seem poised to keep my Sox in a Cubs-like drought unless my team changes tactics), incorporating statistical analysis into their evaluation of ballplayers. And likewise, I believe many sabermetricians, including my amateur self, would love to incorporate a major league scout's report on a player into what we do. Heck, Tangotiger even set up a Fan's Scouting Report to try and provide this very type of insight, assuming that the population will average itself out into a viable scouting report on a player.

That leaves us one group that hasn't fully given in, but probably in part out of self preservation: the amateurish scouts known as professional baseball writers, who go to games and write about the teams. Now, you could say it is in their interest to keep taking a hard line on the scouting side since their profession not only favors that type of analysis, but also it makes for good copy in the modern environment. I, on the other hand, think that it is simpler than that conspiracy theory: some people just haven't thought it through, and a sizable number of them have a voice with this nation's newspapers, radio stations, and television networks. Rather, they see things in the following order:
- Find interesting topic for debate
- Pick a side
- Argue like hell for that side, occasionally disregarding logic in favor of meeting deadlines
- Repeat for next column/post/segment
Can anyone in the class tell me what's wrong with that?

Right-o kids, they make up their minds then find reasons to support their claim rather than inverting the process. Maybe that's why we have so many lawyers in this country. Or maybe that's why our narrow mindedness has lead us to where we stand at today. Statheads vs. Scouts may seem like a trifle debate, but it could very easily be a microcosm for our society, where we all need to show a little more thought and do a little more research before doing things and drawing conclusions.

Care to see the stats?

Cheese!

2008-01-12T16:54:00.000-08:00

Today is a national holiday in one "nation", the same as it has been for generations. It's the NFL playoffs, and Packerland is back involved once again. As a "citizen" currently clad in the replica uniform of a gentleman from Kiln, MS and a bona fide triangular shape of foam, I too share the excitement of many Cheeseheads from coast to coast, rooting for the real America's Team (apologies to Irving, TX for any bruised egos.... only if your does not beat ours again this year).

I settle into my throne, beverage nearby, awaiting this kickoff. Today's roadblock call themselves the Seahawks, which are only menacing in the hundreds anyway. They only brought 70-80, so we're safe with our frozen meat packers. Snow falls lightly, a true sign that playoff football and Lambeau are made for each other like a Billy Goat and barren foul poles awaiting of pennants in the World's Largest Beer Garden.

The ball is kicked off, and the game begins. A bobble on the return seems harmless, but is a harbinger of things to come. A bobble on the first play from scrimmage, a screen pass, has this "fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on you" feel to it. So much so that I blink and my beloved Pack are already down seven. The next sequence requires a journey into my dangerous mind to fully appreciate the stream of thought that governed my reactions:
- "It's OK. Just a lucky early break. Shake it off."
- "Well, at least he caught the ball off the kick this time."
- "Way to go kid! That's the way to say you're not living in your past mistakes."
- "Beautiful run up the mid....dle....."
- "WHAT THE $%^&$@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
- "2 fumbles, 2 TDs. And the field is getting whiter like my shocked face."
At this point, I'm saying "thank goodness" for the fact that all this happened in about 1/20 of the game time while praying that the inexperience in this situation for 99% percent of the team doesn't spiral into panic.

Thankfully, the aforementioned gentleman from Kiln (or is it an actual kiln, considering how tough and hardened 38 years can make a man) takes over. 6 passes later, a 2-man audible to a pass results in the shock deficit being halved and the youthful team remembering it's just a football game out there, nothing more. Then the defense remembers it has to uphold its end of the bargain too and to not be a doormat to touchdowns all day. So they force a punt, and the little running back who served up the fumbles in the first place remembers how to play like an alum of the University of the Golden Dome should. So he scores to atone for one mistake.

201 yards and 2 more TDs later, Mr. Grant has more than atoned for his early errors, helping my beloved Pack score touchdowns on six consecutive offensive possessions. I will Bang on the Drum All Day while enjoying this rout.

New directions

2008-01-09T19:45:00.000-08:00

When TIME magazine finally does its end of the year review, they'll likely be calling 2008 a significant "year of change". "Change" itself will be the buzzword of the year by summer, courtesy of an election year where every candidate will have one fundamental goal to promote the occurrence of change that for some reason only seems to be talked about every 4 years.

Well, forget all the talk for change by the candidates of the Chan... I mean, Democratic Party, for a moment. Here's what changing here at MitchMusings:

You may have noticed the new subtitle already. I resolve to make this blog look like it's not done by a total novice, just an amateur.
You may also have noticed the frequency (or lack) of posts. Expect that to change (which gives you one more thing to read online if you so choose), at least to 1 every few days.
Last, but certainly not least, I hope to live up to what I promised this blog would be at the outset. If I lack the content you expect, let your presence be felt.

So with that, I sign off for now. Expect another post soon.

While you wait, here's a brilliant observation on the election by one of my favorite columnists.

The bitter cold of winter

2007-12-14T17:54:00.000-08:00

I could probably title this post "Confessions of a dangerous mind", but at the moment it's in the teens outside, with snow having fallen just about every other day for the past week, so I'll just stick with what you see above.

If your above the age of 16, you may want to sit back and reflect on these questions:
"Who do I seem to live my life like?"
"What events have impacted how I see the world?"
And the most dangerous question of all..... "Why are things the way they are?"
A recurring spat of bitterness led me to these questions about my own life, and if the following reflection helps you in any way figure out something about your life, then thank the Lord, not me.

I can pinpoint the day I became an angry man. The date is irrelevant, but the events are far from that. Sophomore year of college is typically a year when after getting your feet wet the year before you start to dive in and see how far you can go, and thus set your sights accordingly. I had been a very involved resident in my dorm, which conveniently was attached to the campus Newman center, where I was also involved in a lot of different activities. I was also maintaining my usually high GPA (not a 4.0, but still good), and I had my sights set on 1 simple role: Resident Advisor. When it came time to apply, I knew that the going would be tough, as there were others, many whom I had befriended, who also made good candidates. There was also a dearth of available positions, as only 2 would even be brought on as RAs. unlike the 5 of the prior year. I realized I wasn't a shoe in for one of the open slots, but figured with my record that I'd at least receive an interview.

Sophomoric folly #1: Assume something will happen and have no thought about the alternative result.

The interview list gets posted, and I'm overlooked without an interview. Worse, I see a name of someone who I know won't make a good RA, but happened to be good friends with one of the current female RAs, and wonder how on Earth he was chosen over me. I'm pretty sure people could see the steam spewing out my ears when I was in this rage. It was bad enough I even bitched about it to one of the RAs that it was ridiculous. My rationalizing of events to try and soothe things didn't do much either. Passed over because of RAs trying to help friends when recommending candidates to the hall director. Directors keeping me out and trying to trap me into a box that I may not want to be in. Someone thinking I would overextend myself with all I was involved in. Nothing I came up with could ease the pain, as it was all conjecture with no solid evidence. My thoughts over how my college life would go suddenly vanished. I became an insecure 19-year-old who had to figure out what next.

Sophomoric folly #2: Carry emotional baggage around and try to ignore it.

This was something I should have learned already. It took me 3 years to fully grieve after my grandmother died, though part of that was the whole trying-to-be-a-macho-man-at-15 thing. Still, it was a lesson I learned, but insanely repeated in this case. The semester was capped off with my tanking on a linear algebra final after having things come pretty easy for most of the course. The next semester I land myself on academic probation. To top it off, my search for someone to open up to became a rebellion against an attempt to back away from the dating scene for the year, which then lead to my realizing I missed out on one girl who was really interested in my quirky self. Talk about a harsh wake up call that you're human and flawed.

Sophomoric folly #3: Just because time moves on doesn't mean things move away.

Earlier this month, I received a donation request from the aforementioned Newman center that actually runs the dorm too. It was the first contact I had received from the dorm since I graduated, found a job and moved out on my own. And I was pissed that it took them this long to finally send me something in the mail. Now, they also have this newsletter, which I never received a copy of, so that's a part of it. But the bulk of it was the feeling that I poured myself into that place for 4 years, not only as a resident, but as someone who was involved in all aspects of the Newman center to some degree, and never received a whole lot of recognition for it. Sure, I led the Knights council, but I was never rewarded with the leadership positions elsewhere that I thought I could handle. The RA ordeal was the just first of the perceived slights from there. Each slight left a chip on the shoulder, and while they're easy to ignore since I'm hundreds of miles away, they've refused to go away.

In one of my interviews, I was chided for asking for more money from the employer who ultimately hired me. I was told I was part of this "Generation of entitlement", where one thinks if he/she does x, y, and z, then the equation will lead to whatever it is he/she wants. He/she realizes that x, y, and z are variables that have a number of possibilities, but feel as if those actions in general have merited something that may not have necessarily been earned merely by those efforts. It's like being a pitcher who throws what appears to be a flawless sequence of pitches to a batter that has him struggling, only to watch that final pitch of the at bat be one that will most likely result in a strikeout, only to watch the ball get smoked for a home run. What's a pitcher to do? Learn from the previous misstep, grab the baseball and make pitches to the next batter to get him out.

So what do I need to remember about myself that in my pressing to prove something I cannot I have forgotten? That leaders first start as good soldiers. That you can't always get what you want, but you might just find what you need. That trying to prove something in the past only means you're missing out on trying to prove what you can do today.

Carpe diem. New batter. Time to pitch.

Some least favorites of mine

2007-11-18T05:52:00.001-08:00

Things that annoy me on multiple levels at the moment:

Maroon 5, "Makes Me Wonder" - Most of their songs have been decent and worth listening to. This one is where they take the leap from good band to manufactured garbage. If there is a more overproduced song out there now, it's probably because the name of the artist is a tabloid fixture (e.g. Spears, B.; Lohan, L.; etc)
Buster Olney - A fine writer and baseball reporter, but he makes me want to smack him sometimes for acting like the crowds in Jerusalem who demanded Pilate to "Crucify Him!" His blog is a joy to read, but he moves to judgment to swiftly, (typically) prognosticating doomsday for baseball rather than letting history unfold. Thank goodness I never was exposed to him during the 1994 strike, because I'm certain he never thought baseball would recover from that either. So, Mr. Olney, please let the perjury trial of Barry Lamar Bonds run its course and report on it, don't speculate.
Bush tax policies - It is extremely difficult to point to any single reason why our economy is regressing back to the days of Carnegie and Hearst. Increasing international demand for key commodities and an ever present desire to not be satisfied with $10B quarterly profits (looking at your, ExxonMobil) are probably just as much to blame. But the Bush tax cuts plus the massive spending on keeping an active military force in Iraq are the ones most prominent on the political stage, and with New Hampshire and Iowa just around the corner, it is likely something that will end up meaning a Democrat takes the White House in November. Remember, after all the political analysis is through next November, you'll have heard someone say "It's the economy, stupid!" as a reason for the Republicans not holding the top executive office (and Congress too, while we're at it).

Random month-end musings

2007-10-31T19:40:00.000-07:00

A few thoughts as October ends.....

A wise man today reminded me it's Reformation Day for the Lutheran Church. While Luther's 95 Theses have brought about many goods, the most impacting legacy is the fracturing of the Christian Church. As any good Bible Christian should know, Christ founded only 1 Church, not 500. While some may argue which is the True Faith, today should be more of a reminder that we all are seeking the Truth, even though our human condition may inhibit us from seeing it in full. We have been blinded in some ways by upbringing and the aesthetics of religion rather than looking into the theology and studying it for understanding. Let us work to change this.
Why do I read more about Alex Rodriguez as a 3rd baseman signing rather than a shortstop signing? I think he's worth more at his natural position, and will be of more value there as well for whoever ponies up the ridiculous amount of dough he will ultimately get. While the White Sox could use him in this capacity, he is a long shot signing for purse pincher Jerry Reinsdorf. The Red Sox could sign him, solidifying their place as the "New Yankees" (especially if they resign Mike Lowell), but won't because Theo Epstein and Bill James are smarter than that to let Boras try to negotiate them like he did Tom Hicks. My wager is on the top free agent this year signing with...... whoever is stupid enough to pay him more than he made last year.
The best player in MLS is not named Beckham, but Blanco. Watch tomorrow as he helps the Fire upend the top team in MLS, DC United, in the tournament for the MLS Cup.
On another football note (soccer to my fellow Yanks on this side of the Atlantic), will anyone beat Arsenal this year? We'll find out this weekend when they face the famed club of Manchester United. Gunners Forever!

Why the Cubs shouldn't win the World Series..... Ever

2007-10-04T17:58:00.000-07:00

DISCLAIMER: The author is a die hard fan of the Chicago White Sox, and still smiles at the thought of their 2005 World Series victory even after a year where they played bad baseball.

With the greatest time of year upon us, that being the month of October and the Major League Baseball postseason, it is a time of nothing but outstanding baseball night after glorious night, with a champion crowned at the end of it all. With the exception of spoiled Yankee fans, the supporters of the team that wins experience a joy unlike any other, the product of a daily grind met with penultimate success for the year.

Some teams, however, have managed to have this joy elude them and their paying customers for multiple generations. While some have sated their fans thirst (Boston in 2004, the aforementioned, beloved, and properly colored Sox in 2005), others have yet to achieve this. Remarkably, this year's edition of the playoffs features the longest drought in both the American and National League. The Cleveland Indians, champions of the American League Central division, fought tooth and nail with the Detroit Tigers for 5 months before galloping away like Barbaro's final quarter in the Derby in the final month, have gone since the 1950s without this taste of glory, coming tantalizingly close in 1997. The other is what many believe to be the most accursed team in professional sports, the crosstown brethren of my beloved team, the Chicago Cubs.

For 99 years, Cubs faithful have routinely attended the world's largest beer garden to drink Old Style and watch a team that for many years was middling to poor, with the occasional year or two of success, but none ending with a World Series victory to end the season. Naturally, many Cub faithful desire this to occur, and, since 1945, when the Curse of the Billy Goat has reared its horned skull, their despair has mutilated a number of individual lives (see Durham, Leon or Bartman, Steven). Yet, in this humble author's opinion, a World Series could be the worst thing to ever happen to that organization.

First, and foremost, Cub fans would lose their identity. The author has been lectured by his friends who belong to said group of Cub fans on how being a Cub fan is a microcosmic teacher about life. Not coincidentally, this is the same tune that Red Sawx fans were singing prior to 2004 as well, and now they have become like those spoiled Yankee fans, thinking its their birthright to be atop the AL East and challenging for a championship each and every year. So too, I fear, would this be the fate of Cubdom. A fan base that was raised up on things other than winning won't know how to act after the culminating joy, and it will act in a despicable manner after the euphoria fades.

Second, too much success will make the Cubs have to market like every other team. I mean, what other team can go 64-99, and yet sell 90% of its tickets? It's because the Cubs have done an impeccable job of marketing Wrigley Field as the historic baseball shrine that it is, creating a culture in and around the ballpark that goes for a party more than for a winner. However, winning will decrease the number of party goers who attend the beer garden as the victory bandwagoners climb aboard and buy out their seats. This in turns makes Wrigleyville less desirable for John Q. Partyman, and he goes to other areas instead. When the Cubs return to the mismanaged state that they are accustomed too, the ballpark will look like Comiskey during its lean years.

Finally, and perhaps most important in the author's opinion, the nasally dialect of the Wrigley denizen would become excruciatingly unbearable, particularly for my Pale Hose brethren. I would not wish this fate on anyone; some may argue it'd be hellish.

The prosecution rests its case. The Cubs should never win the World Series. Ever.

P.S. Note to those who are Cub fans: The Curse will die when you let it. And I'm not sure that's possible.

Being overwhelmed in the information age

2007-09-26T18:17:00.000-07:00

It was impossible to get a conversation going, everybody was talking too much. - Yogi Berra

Chance
ESPN
Columbia
By the Numbers
rogerebert.com

And that's just a sampling of what I try to keep track of by reading them on a regular basis.

I keep finding that anytime I read something, there are 10 other things that I feel like I have to read in order to understand where this discovery, reference, or insight is coming from. It's enough to drive a man bonkers. And with my information appetite, it often does.

However, this chase for knowledge has left me wondering to what end does it go. Can a renaissance man exist in the age of Google? Can trying to know something about everything lead to knowing nothing about anything? In other words, can you try to make yourself so smart you just make yourself dumb?

While the advent of the blog has given millions a public voice they never had, there are times when it comes to be a disservice. To be honest, I have no clue how on earth scholars 2 centuries from now (provided the human race isn't consumed by the expansion of the Sun at that point in time) will be able to study this age like we were able to study early American history. There is just so much information to go through that it'll take years for something meaningful to define our society to be discovered from it.

At the present though, I believe all this information does need to humble us all to accept this fact: We may all know something about everything, but nobody knows everything about anything. If you think you do know everything about something, please feel free to say so. I have a bludgeon right here to knock some sense into and arrogance out of you.

So, why did some of us get like this? Let's look at the story of one Martin Luther, perhaps the patron saint of the blog. He sure had some ideas, and decided to list them on a piece of paper and post it for public viewing. Boy, he sure created quite a stir, the legacy of which is the numerous denominations of Christianity beyond the Catholic and Greek Orthodox churches. Were these multiple churches what Luther had in mind when he wrote his 95 theses? Most certainly not, but others felt embolden by his actions to speak out against the Catholic Church, and felt they could start their own church. Remarkable how one idea, whether confirmed right or wrong, can lead to such a fragmentation of society when reaction takes precedence over reason.

Baseball Analysis.... dead?

2007-09-11T06:32:00.000-07:00

When I was a wee lad, I collected baseball cards and poured over the statistics on the back side, creating a fascination with numbers and numerical calculations that has propelled me into a statistics degree and a job as a statistician. But even as I work in a retail setting, my first love of numbers always will be baseball statistics. It is why I joined SABR, and why I have continued and growing interest in sabermetrics.

With this in mind, one can imagine what my initial reaction was to reading these words: "Baseball analysis is dead." Now, I need not detail my direct disagreement with the statement made by Mr. Huckabay, as it does not add to what has been stated by many a person already (see Rob Neyer's ESPN blog if you have access or the response by Dave Studeman on Hardball Times). Rather, I feel that it is not a funeral march that was written, but a challenge to the entire sabermetric/baseball analysis community.

Mr. Neyer and Nate Silver of Mr. Huckabay's Baseball Prospectus, as noted by Mr. Studeman, both cite that sabermetrics is an analytical science, albeit covering a much more finite realm than a more traditional science like biology. As with any science, discovery can be classified into two broad groups: ideas with practical application and ideas that foster new ways of thinking about the subject. Mr. Huckabay's view is focused almost exclusively on the former, and it is to this end he is challenging the sabermetric community to reach for. He is mindful that baseball organizations have far more data than is available publicly (even on his own website), particularly scouting data, and while the use of sabermetrics like WARP, Pythagorean records, and FIP is informative to the fans of the game, it is the organizations who stand to profit the most from the science. If a sabermetrician does not strive for discovery which can immediately impact or lead to another discovery that impacts front office thinking, then the practice of the science is in vain.

Perhaps my favorite example of this latter idea is only double Nobel laureate in physics, and a genius by any standard. John Bardeen, while at the University of Illinois in Chambana, IL (that's Champaign-Urbana for those unfamiliar), made two extremely important discoveries that modern society now takes for granted as a part of everyday life. He invented the transistor and, later on, the superconductor. Both of those discoveries are enabling the PC you are currently using to read this to even be in existence, as they are the fundamental building blocks of the computer, like protons and nuetrons in chemistry. Now, did he know then what his discoveries would lead to? Not in full, I'm sure. But his discoveries lead to a revolution in how society interacts and operates. This is what sabermetrics must do as well: make discoveries that lead to impact, directly or indirectly.

Going back to BP or Hardball Times or any other publication that includes sabermetric articles, and this much is clear: those meta-discoveries that can lead to the discoveries of direct impact are still being made.

Welcome to my Jungle!

2007-08-28T19:58:00.002-07:00

Hello! Bienvenidos! Valkommen! My last name is Mitchell, and since random strangers will be free to read this, I'll stick with that or my screenname as a moniker for these pages and posts.

For those who know me, perhaps the first questions are "Why start blogging?" and "Don't you have enough to do?" The answer to the latter question is "Yes, but...". The "but" is the answer to the first question.

My primary reason is because I don't have time to maintain my own web page, but still desire to have a venue online where I can post some things that need to be posted. However, this does not include any personal information. If you want that, you best know who I am. My postings here will vary from commentary on current events and society to interesting findings or other forays into research. Specifically, though, you can look for the following types of posts:
- Essays about my research in baseball statistics (another primary motivator for creating the blog)
- Commentary on a broad variety of topics, primarily (but not exclusively) politics, religion, society and sports
- Musings on statistical topics, as I hold a degree in statistics and am seeking to obtain a higher one.

My posts will be sporadic as I deem them necessary, so check back often.

Good night, and good luck.